How many trades do you need to hit your profit target? Enter the target, your risk per trade, your average R-multiple on winners, and your win rate — see the expected number of trades and a realistic range. Built for prop firm pass-paths but works for any profit goal.
How the math works
Every trade has an expected value (EV) — the average dollars you'd make per trade if you ran the same setup thousands of times. EV is the only thing that matters long-term. If it's positive, you're profitable. If it's negative, no win streak saves you.
EV per trade = (win rate × R-multiple × risk) − ((1 − win rate) × risk)
Trades to target = ceil(target ÷ EV)
The "expected drawdown" estimates the worst single losing streak you'll hit on the path to target. It's based on the variance of a binary outcome at your win rate. If this number is bigger than your max drawdown limit, you can't pass the challenge with these inputs — even if EV is positive. You have to either trade smaller, raise your R-multiple, or improve win rate.
What numbers to plug in
- Profit Target — for prop firms, this is the published pass target (Apex $50k = $3,000, Topstep $50k = $3,000, FTMO $100k = $10,000). For personal goals, your monthly P&L target.
- Risk per Trade — what you'd lose if stopped out. Most prop firms recommend 0.5–1% of account size per trade ($250–$500 on a $50k account). Smaller risk = more trades needed but lower drawdown risk.
- Avg R-Multiple on Wins — the R you actually realize on winners, not the R you target. Most retail traders plan 3R and realize 1.5R because they cut winners early. Use your actual data from Journali.
- Win Rate — the percentage of your trades that hit target instead of stop, measured on the same setup. Don't use aggregate win rate across all setups — that's misleading.
Common mistakes
- Optimistic inputs. 60% win rate + 3R on wins sounds normal. It's not. Real day-traders running clean strategies hit 40–55% win rate at 1.5–2R. Use the conservative end.
- Ignoring drawdown. A strategy with positive EV can still blow up a $50k account if a single losing streak exceeds the daily loss limit. Check the drawdown number, not just the trade count.
- Pushing past your edge. If the calculator says 80 trades to target, you don't have 80 high-conviction setups in a month. Most pass attempts fail because traders force trades to hit the math.
- Not journaling. Without real win rate and realized R data, every input is a guess. Journali tracks both automatically per setup — so this calculator gets honest numbers.
See your real win rate and realized R by setup
The calculator above only works if your inputs are honest. Journali pulls your true win rate and realized R-multiple from every trade you've logged — by setup, instrument, and time of day. Plug those into the calculator and the answer stops being a guess.
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